wepidemics
#
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title of the paper: High variability in transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within households and implications for control
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0259097
keywords: covid-19, overdispersion, household transmission, maximum likelihood
Parameters: household importation rate, household attack rate, dispersion, diagnostic test sensitivity, diagnostic test specificity
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Content
From the paper:
“In this study, we combine SARS-CoV-2 data from serological antibody tests and self-reported prior tests to estimate within-household transmission of COVID-19 in Utah. Previously published secondary attack rate estimates are largely based on crude formulae which ignore the probabilities of multiple members of a household acquiring infection from the community, multiple generations of transmission within the household (i.e. secondary, tertiary, etc. transmissions), and imperfect test sensitivity and specificity. We addressed these limitations by extending previous models of final household outbreak size distributions to develop a novel probabilistic model of household importation and household transmission combined with test sensitivity and specificity. Our model also quantifies variability in household transmission and the potential extent of overdispersion.”
original entry: https://github.com/UT-IDDynamics/wepidemics/blob/main/data/within-households.md