wepidemics

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title of the paper: Estimating the overdispersion in COVID-19 transmission using outbreak sizes outside China

doi: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15842.3

keywords: covid-19, overdispersion, superspreading, branching process

Parameters: r0, dispersion

software:

• COVID19_clustersize (R)
• COVID19_clustersize (Python)

Links:

• https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15842.3

Content

From the paper:

“We quantified individual-level variation in COVID-19 transmission by applying a mathematical model to observed outbreak sizes in affected countries. If the observed case counts are part of an ongoing outbreak in a country, cluster sizes may grow in the future. To address this issue, we adjusted the likelihood for those countries with ongoing outbreak by only using the condition that the final cluster size of such a country has to be larger than the currently observed number of cases.”

original entry: https://github.com/UT-IDDynamics/wepidemics/blob/main/data/clustersize-china.md